Is Jonas Vingegaard ready to beat Tadej Pogačar and go from Giro to hero at the Tour de France?
The 29-year-old Danish cyclist, Jonas Vingegaard, has just wrapped up a comfortable GC victory at the Giro d'Italia, dominating the race with apparent ease. This achievement marks only the eighth time in history that a cyclist has won all three of cycling's Grand Tours. But the real test of Vingegaard's mettle lies ahead: the Tour de France.
Vingegaard is now turning his attention to the Tour, aiming to become just the ninth man to win the Giro d'Italia and the Tour de France in the same year. He will face off against his eternal rival, Tadej Pogačar, who is seeking a joint-record fifth yellow jersey. The stage is set for a thrilling showdown.
Vingegaard's confidence is high, and he believes he will be in very good shape for the Tour. This belief is shared by his team, Visma, who expect a closer battle between Jonas and Tadej than the previous year. Mathieu Heijboer, Visma's head of performance, predicts a proper fight between the two, with Vingegaard having the edge.
However, the path to victory is not without its challenges. The conventional wisdom suggests that riding the Giro d'Italia exhausts a GC rider, leaving them in worse shape for the Tour than if they had trained at altitude and warmed up with a stage race in June. History supports this case, with it taking 26 years for a rider to last claim the Giro-Tour double.
But Vingegaard has reasons to believe he can overcome this fatigue. Firstly, his performance numbers were better when he rode the Vuelta a España after the Tour, winning the Spanish race and placing second in the 2023 race. Secondly, he didn't have a serious rival at the Giro, and many analysts believe he was only riding at 90% of his full capacity.
Heijboer explains that Vingegaard's performance at the Giro was controlled and high-pressured, with no need to push himself to the limit. This allowed him to reach a very high level, especially on uphill finishes in the last week. Heijboer believes that Vingegaard's current level is way better than when he won the Tour, but the sport's rapid development means that even his best might not be enough.
The teenage sensation Paul Seixas is an additional factor to consider, as he poses a threat to both Vingegaard and Pogačar. The accident two springs ago, where Vingegaard crashed hard and suffered severe injuries, has also impacted his performance. He made a remarkable recovery to finish second at the Tour and win the Vuelta, but it took time for him to fully recover.
Vingegaard's training philosophy and coaching have evolved since the accident. Heijboer, who stepped in to fill the shoes of his former coach Tim Heemskerk, believes that the lengthy process of recovery is now paying off. The team has taken a prudent approach to avoid overtraining Vingegaard, focusing on his current form from the Giro.
The Tour begins with a team time trial in Barcelona, and Vingegaard's time-trialling performances have been inconsistent. He has ceded time to his rivals in recent races, but Heijboer acknowledges that the Tour's TT has a significant climb, which could play to Vingegaard's strengths.
The bonus seconds system also plays a crucial role in the Tour, and Visma recognizes the need to address this weakness. Heijboer admits that Pogačar has an advantage in this area, but he believes that Vingegaard can make up for it in the mountains.
As for the 2026 Tour, Heijboer predicts that Vingegaard will be in better shape than ever before. He is confident that he will not have bad days like the previous year, and he believes that he can push Pogačar to new levels. The stage is set for a thrilling showdown between the two cycling legends.
The question remains: will Vingegaard be able to beat Pogačar and go from Giro to hero at the Tour de France?
